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Australian home values are heading towards all-time highs once again after another strong month according to CoreLogic's latest report.1
A heated spring selling season saw strong price growth in the five biggest capital cities, although there are still some mixed results elsewhere.
Find out whether this year's surprising recovery can continue.
Australia's median property price rose another +0.8 per cent in September, bringing total gains for the year to +6.3 per cent.
That brings the national median to within +1.3 per cent of the peak recorded in April 2022.
Sydney's standout run continued with +1.0 per cent growth in September and Melbourne edged forward with another +0.4 per cent gain.
Brisbane prices rose +1.3 per cent, putting the city within touching distance of its record high, while Adelaide and Perth hit new peaks with +1.7 per cent and +1.3 per cent respectively.
Darwin and Canberra held close to flat and Hobart recorded the only monthly loss of -0.6 per cent.
Regional markets maintained a more gradual pace than their capital city counterparts with a combined rise of +0.4 per cent.
The national median is expected to hit a new all-time high by the end of November, CoreLogic's research director Tim Lawless explained.
"We have already seen dwelling values reach new record highs in Perth and Adelaide," he said.
"Brisbane looks set to reach a new record high in October, with home values currently only 0.6 per cent below their previous peak."
In Sydney and Melbourne, winter saw new listings finally begin to climb from deep lows, and that trend has continued into the spring.
Hobart and Canberra have followed suit; total available stock in both cities, plus Melbourne, is sitting at above-average levels.
The opposite is happening in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth where total listings are around -40 per cent down on the five-year average.
Nationally, the number of home sales was +6.3 per cent higher than the five-year average, though sales volumes have dipped since the June quarter.
“Housing affordability is still relatively stretched and is getting worse as home values continue to rise," Mr Lawless said.
"High interest rates make it harder to qualify for credit, especially when considered alongside high cost of living pressures and the three percentage point serviceability buffer."
He added that buyers in markets where listings had risen were enjoying more choice — "and more choice means less urgency, more time to deliberate on the purchase and negotiate with the vendor."
Compared to some of the explosive growth seen in some capital cities in 2023, movements have been more measured in regional markets.
The combined regions saw a +0.4 per cent uplift in September with mixed results between the states.
On a quarterly basis, relatively strong growth has been seen in South Australia, Queensland and Western Australia.
Things have been a bit slower in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania which are each still recording price declines on an annual level.
Mr Lawless pointed out that listings are broadly below average in the regions but sales are also down.
"Softer housing conditions across regional Australia looks to be more demand-driven, with the estimated number of home sales 6.5 per cent lower than a year ago and 9.2 per cent lower relative to the previous five-year average," he said.
Even so, 2023 has seen property prices rise +2.6 per cent over 2023 so far in the combined regions.
Even though listings are rising in some parts of the country, CoreLogic expects the median Australian property price to hit a new all-time high by the end of November.
Almost a third of the country is already at peak levels according to their regional subdivisions, and future indicators look positive for further growth.
Buyers are still being restricted to some degree by challenging barriers to entry into the property market.
"A rise in consumer sentiment, a drop in interest rates or an easing in credit constraints would all be factors supporting a rise in purchasing activity. However, we haven’t seen any evidence of these events occurring," the report read.
Even so, record population growth is underpinning demand at a time when approvals for new builds are at the lowest levels since 2013, so fresh supply should continue to be limited.
"While an undersupply of housing is clearly negative, insufficient levels of housing are likely to support housing values over the medium term."
1. CoreLogic News, Home Value Index up 0.8% in September as demand/supply imbalance continues to push values higher', 2 October 2023
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news-research/news/2023/home-value-index-up-0.8-in-september-as-demandsupply-imbalance-continues-to-push-values-higher
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